US small businesses: AI users expect more jobs and sales, but 77% see no effect on labor costs
New York Fed, 8 October 2026: of 5,248 employer firms, 46% use AI; their owners are more optimistic, though the study does not say whether they will be right.
- On 8 October 2026, the New York Fed publishes a study: 46% of 5,248 small employer firms use AI tools.
- Among them, 77% see no change in labor costs and 31% report higher sales; they still expect more growth.
- The authors say it is unknown whether those expectations will be met: AI is judged on figures measured at home.
In a note dated 8 October 2026, Will Aarons and Asani Sarkar of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York analyze the AI module of the Federal Reserve Banks' 2025 Small Business Credit Survey, fielded from September to November 2025 among 5,248 employer firms. Of firms with at least one employee, 46% say the business or its staff use AI tools, and another 15% plan to adopt them within twelve months. Among users, 77% report no change in labor costs and 31% report increased sales.
The central finding is about expectations: firms using AI expect more employment (a net gap of 33 points versus 15 for other firms) and more revenue (48 points versus 21). After accounting for firm characteristics and recent history, the advantage remains at 10 points for employment and 14 points for revenue. It is larger among owners who describe their finances as fair or poor (24 points on revenue versus 15). The authors note that whether these firms will get what they expect is a matter for future research.
For AppH
- The result is a reminder that AI is judged on a business's own figures: time per file, reminders sent, errors. An agency can record them on one repetitive task before deciding to go further.
- Users' optimism does not replace checking: at AppH, every message the assistant prepares is read and approved by a person before it goes out.
Against / the honest limit
- The study covers American small businesses and statements of expectation; it does not concern France or domiciliation, and it proves no cause and effect.
- AI users may be more optimistic for reasons other than AI itself: the authors do not settle it, and 77% of users see no effect on labor costs.
An expectation is not a result. For a small business, the sound reflex is to record what the tool really changes on one precise task, and to keep a person who approves, rather than rely on the prevailing enthusiasm.
Reviewed by a human at AppH